Issued by Dr.Amrou DARRADJ
Chairman of the Egyptian Institute for Political and Strategic Studies
Minister of Planning and International Cooperation
In the Government of President Dr Mohamed MORSI
Paper presented in the framework of the Forum Kuala Lumpur
Annual Conference on The role of freedom and democracy in achieving stability and security
Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
(November 27-28 ,2015)
Introduction
Revolution, in essence, is a popular act aimed to bring about a radical change in the overall structure of the system prevailing in society (1).
the Arab Spring revolutions start out after the accumulation of grievances and deterioration that did not leave room for only one solution in which the ruin and collapse due to corruption , tyranny and oppressive rule, which acts instead of colonial powers seeking to dominate the region , the capabilities and the will of independent wealth.
Revolutions launched to carry with the demands of the people , their dreams and ambitions through labor and hard birth which paves the way for the future of a new economic and social change, political and cultural radical, in terms of values and ideas, relationships and tools,cause of this grandness that makes sense to keep pace with each revolution, two revolutions: the revolution in the expectations and aspirations to the breadth of the hopes for change and counter-revolution that stands behind the power of old system that the revolutions threatened its interests, and affected its gains.
Arab Spring revolutions do not constitute an exception to these rules, I was born loaded with counter-revolution not only in the revolutions of states, but a counter-revolution in the whole region, supported by the international parties, found in these revolutions a real threat to their interests and influence in the continued subordination of the region , its systems and their people for a spin in orbit, in new mechanisms and system of new re-colonization .
In the framework of these considerations this paper deals with the two main axes, in the following manner:
First theme, the Arab Spring: Reality and challenges
Second theme: Arab Spring: Future Prospects
First axis
Arab Spring: Reality and challenges
Many analysts and observers agree that the Arab revolutions have broken the barrier of fear in Arab societies and established new history as a fall-back position ,and they returned the Arabs to date after they were outside history for several centuries during which it suffered from colonialism ,tyranny ,domination , subordination, and became certainly based on many of the indicators that this the region, political and social systems that it controls the Arab countries , will not return to what it used to be before these revolutions, that the revolutionary path, either it lasts or not it will lead eventually to the establishment of democratic states more stronger and more effective, more reflective to their people’s will so as to achieve their hopes and aspirations.
Because the Arab revolutions unfinished stages , did not complete the full objectives , did not settle yet , the time is still too early to give a definitive ruling on the extent of their impact in the social structure of political, economic, cultural and civilizational systems in the Arab region.
In the framework of these considerations, and after the lifting of the status quo and make an accurate estimate of the position of the revolutions in the Arab countries, there is a range of themes and challenges, including:
- Disintegration of the rules of public life and former security systems, the need for Spring countries to rebuild these institutions as a guarantor of a peaceful transition of power toward democracy and freedom in the country .
- Challenge homogeneity: Springrevolutions is not a homogeneous entity ,contradictions may plaguing the active forces, not only in the countries of the region, but at the level of a single state, and on the platoon level or single entity.
- Multiple structural problems in the spring countries, revolutions and uprisings revived primary loyalties (tribal, sectarian and ethnic, religious and regional), as reflected negatively on the concept and structure of the national state in these countries, furthermore the existence of obstacles related to the intellectual and political communities structure, emerged in a negative feedback toward the revolutionary processes.
- Challenge the remnants of previous regimes: Arab Spring Revolutions did not work during the past five years in the eradication of the previous regulations, clearance of corruption and authoritarianism symbols, these elements are danger still exists and makes the path of change difficult and slow, the crowd and the crowd counter hampered the process of transformation to democracy.
5.The deterioration of the economic situation and the weakness of creaking and the fragility of the state organs and institutions in all countries of the Arab Spring, which makes them unable to carry out their functions effectively and efficiently.
- Weapons forces and militias associated with a period of confrontation and war, also pose a challenge to the process of democratic transformation in the Arab Spring countries, it is necessary to remove it and put an end to the manifestations of arms in society (1).
- Growing minority issues raised by the international powers, whereas the minorities (religious, ethnic, confessional, sectarian, ethnic), constitute ,in the event of internal policy failures in management, one of the main tools that rely on external forces in conflicts management with some other parties , it increases the risk of this card in the Arab region, because there is no Arab state characterized by full harmony, and some States have multiple minorities , with multiple patterns and aspects of regional and international interference, with mutual accusations of treason and the loyalty and the parties abroad benefit in the dissemination of dismantling policies and Internal destruction in these countries.
- The role of foreign powers, which under the current Arab situation seek to achieve three key objectives: to create chaos , undermine the security and stability in the Arab countries, shredding the unity of Arab societies ,provoking internal conflicts among the various forces of society and especially along sectarian lines, weaken the independence of the Arab countries their ability to control its capacities , and the exploitation of this conflict in favor of the strategic objectives or replace all of that support by unlimited of repressive central authority control and dominate the peoples and its wealth and are manufactured by the agendas of those foreign powers , interests at the expense of the people and their security and interests.
- Greater likelihood of a number of Arab countries division against the backdrop of the People’s developments revolutions ,social upheavals witnessed by these countries, and in the most important of these countries are Syria, Libya and Yemen, the most vulnerable to the dismantling and re-installation, after Iraq, Sudan, which partition has become a reality
- Emergence and expansion of the forces of extremism and terrorism – especially Daesh- which has become a threat within the communities that wish to change and also represent a threat both regionally and internationally.
- The emergence of new players from non-State squares of these countries, there are approximately 15 disputed power in Iraq, 8 major factions in Sudan, and several parties in Palestine, Lebanon,
And a myriad of actors in Somalia (1), along with dozens of power in Syria, Yemen and Libya, as well as in Egypt.
- During the past five years confirmed the transformations of the Arab Spring that is theconflicts taking place in the spring countries will not remain with only a political nature, engage in the elites that have special projects and agendas are limited, but autocratic ,authoritarian and military regimes practices will pay all segments of society to engage in it.
- Participation of some minorities and different communities in the Arab Spring were among the most important factors that contributed to the earthquake, corruption and despotic regimes, which imposes on all revolutionary forces consolidate and promote the rights of everyone in the new homeland, they are true partners in building the present and future, united by their faith in homeland Free the upper floor where peoples not to autocracy, oppression or control system of special interests, corruption and tyranny.
- Shifts during the past five years confirmed that the Muslim-reference political currents, the more firmly the values of democracy, and more eager to consolidate and strengthen, compared to some of the other streams, these values for her closer to the logos , to firmness, which made some of those currents other allied with the corruption , tyranny of military systems and require institutions to pounce on the popular revolutions benefits.
The second axis
Arab Spring: Future Prospects
The Arab revolutions based on the background of poverty ,oppression, marginalization and confiscation of personal and public freedoms factors, will keep the bet on the future clear, decisive and effective, in light of Arab societies experiencing a process of profound change in awareness and values, in front of a real revolutionize of all sectors and levels, the means of repression and oppression , tyranny could not prevent their development and escalation.
Arab Spring has demonstrated the importance of having real radical change, not partial to the demands of reform that does not affect the system of corruption, tyranny and rule oppressive, as demonstrated by the will of millions , steadfastness ,persistence and creativity in the field of revolutionary change after several years of the outbreak , revolutions in the face of all the challenges that lie ahead, that what was described as difficult or impossible to not only just insurmountable challenges with determination, persistence and good planning, hard work, creative continued, revolutions have always had to get rid of this fact, and what it is working, but to overcome all the obstacles and challenges so that to be achieved .
A closer look at the case of the Arab nation prove beyond reasonable doubt that the future of revolutions and the will of the people, the will of dictators and their allies did not provide anything on any level for their people and their country, and witnessing the economic, service and development, industrial, agricultural and education indicators, scientific research
Tyranny and corruption systems became hardened it no longer even has intellectually or culturally or politically deceptiveness , it has only bullets, repression and torture.
The sparks of the Arab Spring proved that tyranny, corruption and injustice systems columns are not as strong as they occurred , even if armed with bullets and bombs, those peoples in moments milestone has succeeded to undermine and weaken that system and almost to eliminate it; reflecting on the case of the Arab peoples realize that the Arab Spring was not just the moment of an emergency or a transient case it is a genuine desire rooted which predicts that the future does not have a tyrannical ruling crust.
The exact reflection of the depth of the just demands and its root in Arab societies which manifested and proved it by making us realize that authoritarian regimes are unable to meet those demands and are unable to disable and to delay the desired future, so they do have only recycling of old obsolete rule and tools, aiming at fooling people and numbing it under the brunt of fondling dreams ,false promises or intimidation , repression, but the sequence of events and the worsening crisis , increasing community awareness , increasing elites live and making powers of those tricks is fast exposure, which explains some of the reasons for the power of spells rebellious yet.
If indeed foretells the weakness of structural and imminent collapse in the systems of corruption and tyranny, and predicts communities movement which shifted towards the future movement ,explored some of their demands and no longer tolerate to submissively remain silent, it also confirms for awareness of one nation close despite borders and divisions, but the worries and hopes are shared ; condition and its desire revolutionary and the phenomenon without an agreement or coordination. We think that the living forces that aims at a better future , that believe in the need for radical change and real cleansing, the adoption of a number of policies and procedures, in the forefront:
- Strengthening the role of the people in the face of the forces of counter-revolution , the forces of tyranny and corruption at home and abroad, which imposes on the revolutionary forces to coordinate efforts, the distribution of roles ,good use of the possibilities , capabilities not only within each country of the Arab Spring countries separately, but in the context of networking with revolutionary forces in these countries, but also work to create a real and well-established partnerships with all believers in freedom and democratic forces, in all countries of the world, in the face of all the corruption, tyranny and authoritarianism systems.
- Preparation of new leaders to run in the midst of revolutionary change, leaders who are able to deploy real awareness, revolutionizing within the various categories and levels, in light of a genuine coalitions – not formal – and coherent entities, build a revolutionary fronts, not only to protect the revolution, but to achieve and consolidate radical change operations.
- The need for a serious assessment of the visions and ideas and courses of action and mechanisms, and to consider seriously any note that is required according to the stage requirements and of the large and rapid changes, not to accept any justification for delay evaluation and reviews operations.
- Care and attention to the religious authority in the Arab and Islamic societies, because the exclusion of religion in any way, or making it a matter of contention between the conflicting political forces, is doomed to failure, and the consequent risk more gains resulting from any
Party , it is the source of citizens mobilization efforts to cultural change which establishes a civilian democratic system and builds a comprehensive development
5. Adopt policies that will neutralize the military for political action in order to ensure revolutions more than the ability to continue and effectiveness in achieving its objectives, the military institution is capable of dumping any revolution in seas of blood and chaos and abuse in all strong and tampering with all estimators tool, as happened in Libya, as it is happening now in Syria, and Egypt also witnessed the massacres in Rabia and El Nahdha and others.
6. Good preparation for restructuring the rapid and effective security services and the dismantling of repression , oppression machines, through the adoption of specific Chiefs of strategy, clear policies, in an effort to contain and purge the security services and separate them from the forces of counter-revolution, progress, all the way to reform the security and military doctrine, which affect all the rights and freedoms .
7. Work to neutralize the external factor: in front of the nature of the role played by external forces (regional and international) to support the counterrevolution , to support pillars of the systems that revolution raised against in the countries of the Arab revolutions, especially in the Egyptian experience ,the importance of the adoption of a number of policies that would neutralize the role .This factor, which was linked to the nature of the consequences created by, or can be produced by these revolutions regionally and internationally, where regional and international implications vary depending on the viewing angles to it, and depending on the state, which has the Revolution, and depending on the direct parties concerned in this revolution, where the degree of these concerns vary from revolution to another, what the United States and the Zionist entity and the European Union matter of Egypt is its commitment to the agreements of Camp David, and not to edit the will of the people and the Islamist takeover of the new system, the European Union matter of Libya is a continuation of the flow of oil, and Tunisia to address the migration of illegal and non-arrival of Islamists for judging, and stop the transmission of the revolutionary contagion to the rest of the Arab Maghreb countries, … and so on.
And so can the Arab revolutions to deal effectively with these dimensions, and neutralize the role of the external factor in supporting counterrevolutions ,previous systems, the importance of the stress that these revolutions represent the beginning of a new era for the Arab peoples who regained her self-confidence, and beginning to form a new regional situation, taking into account the interests of the Arab countries ,peoples first and conditions that would limit the hegemony ,guardianship strategies and intervention practiced by seeking to continue the practice of some international powers, especially since the completion of these revolutions of successes would turn between any new Arab power and return to the subordination of the outside policies , repression and tyranny at home.
- Establish the organizational independence constituent groups: the legal existence of political parties and groups with interests and their integration in the project represents a fundamental value for the promotion of freedom, democracy and constitutional system, which means that pluralism involving tolerance and acceptance of majority rule , restricted the government and the protection of fundamental rights.
- Intensive multi-representation of private and public interests within the framework of the government and the influence of special interest groups politically and administratively through the work of pressure groups and direct representation in the bodies of some methods and their participation in decision-making in some public administrations.
- Emphasize that the links and relationships between individuals and groups is basic the state is not only an expression of this complementary relationship, this integration essence is a commitment to shared values , a sense of belonging , community respect for the law , believe his integrity and moderation in political work and commitment to work-out, maintain social which cohesion stems of satisfaction ,agreement between individuals and groups, to adopt peaceful means to change the prevailing pattern of relations.
SUMMARY
The Arab Spring popular, sincere work as a result of the accumulation of a long struggle at a time in which the accumulation of deficits , failure and deterioration in the systems of corruption and tyranny.
Despite what may be encountered Revolution of challenges but that a careful analysis demonstrates the ability to overcome those challenges, and what it has achieved in moments of surprise and shocking to the systems of corruption, oppression and tyranny can sequel achieved and protected, including gained from the experience and capabilities to the systems corrupt obsolete acquired weakness and antistatic agents The collapse, which requires hard work to reduce the negative effects of affiliations narrow the process of democratization, the promotion and protection of political participation values through the act effectively to build a culture of co-existence based on the consecration of the foundations and principles of citizenship, the rule of law, and social justice.
As well as to rebuild the state organs and institutions – especially security – on new foundations, and even re-establish the concept of the state and its legitimacy in the collective awareness of the various groups and social formations within its territory, so that gradually attracts the ultimate loyalty of its citizens.
And that the living forces of the revolution manage to the success of the democratization process through the development of revolutionary and political rhetoric, update organizational structures, the expansion of social rules through the exercise of revolutionary and political work among the masses and not through the media, in an effort to build and strengthen , consolidate the popular will, which is the guarantor for the success of the greatest revolutions.
If there was a final summary, they recap open conflict between the past tyrannical system and between the aspirations of the young, sharp living forces , which almost groping their freedom, dignity and decent livelihood, which for the sake of it being made dearly, and soon rejoice the victory of God and opening soon, and sincerity Shawqi God’s mercy who said :
MAKING WISHES ARE NOT ENOUGH , FOR GOALS, TO GET
THE WORLD IS OWNED ONLY BY STRIFE AND SWEAT
